AI will reshape workplace safety risks and job roles by 2040

Artificial intelligence is expected to reshape job roles, psychosocial demands and workplace safety risks by 2040, according to an international report.

It found that, by 2040, generative AI – the technology behind tools such as ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot – will reshape job roles, alter the psychosocial demands of work, and introduce new categories of occupational risk that existing frameworks are not designed to address.

AI is simultaneously reducing some cognitive workloads while creating new ones, and the report noted that workers face pressure to upskill continuously, to review AI-generated outputs, and to adapt to roles that were being redefined in real time. 

In the logistics sector, for instance, the introduction of AI into warehouse operations had already been shown to intensify the physical and mental demands placed on workers, mirroring patterns seen with earlier rounds of automation.

The report, Work & Health 2040: Anticipating Changes Impacting the Futures of Occupational Health and Safety, was produced by Canada’s Institute for Work & Health in collaboration with Creative Futures Studio Inc. and drew on contributions from 18 OHS researchers and practitioners from Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. 

The authors, led by Dr Arif Jetha and Monique Gignac from the Institute for Work & Health, employed a structured methodology known as strategic foresight, which differs from conventional prediction in that it deliberately explores a wide range of plausible futures rather than a single expected one. 

Between February and May 2025, the international team participated in six facilitated online scanning sessions, drawing on nearly 400 signals of change gathered from sources ranging from peer-reviewed research and government reports to podcasts, social media and science fiction. The aim was to surface trends that challenged assumptions, not merely those that confirmed existing knowledge.

“A challenge of using the foresight method is that our picture of the future of work and the pace and scale of change is constantly shifting. This is especially true in the most turbulent of times where things can change in an instant,” said Dr Jetha, IWH associate scientific director at the Institute for Work & Health.

“It’s not possible to plan for every possible scenario that may come about in the future. As the OHS professionals were only able to speak to information that exists today, there is always the chance of unforeseen challenges to arise in the years to come.”

The seven major changes identified were: eroding institutional trust; increasing longevity and differences across social generations; intensified climate impacts; algorithmic shifts; rising isolation; expanding horizons of growing hostility; and expanding precarious prosperity. The authors were careful to frame these not as predictions but as plausible drivers of change – each carrying distinct implications for practitioners, researchers, and policymakers.

A few of the key changes included:
Trust as a structural challenge: The erosion of institutional trust emerged as a cross-cutting theme that exacerbated the difficulty of addressing other trends. For OHS professionals, this represented what the authors described as “a structural challenge that impacts the ways in which workers respond to workplace safety directions and messages, OHS regulators, public health campaigns, and implementation of health interventions.”

The report identified a related concern: the rise in worker surveillance. As employers deployed monitoring tools to manage remote and hybrid workforces, the authors noted that increased surveillance could paradoxically deepen distrust – generating worker stress and prompting behaviours aimed at circumventing monitoring systems.

Climate, isolation and precarity: Climate change was identified as one of the most significant structural forces reshaping working conditions. By 2040, the report projected that outdoor workers – including construction workers, agricultural labourers and emergency responders – would face sustained exposure to conditions that exceeded human physical limits. The emergence of new climate-driven industries, from disaster response to renewable energy installation, was expected to create new occupational risks that current OHS standards had not anticipated.

The report also highlighted growing social disconnection as a safety issue in its own right. The authors found that loneliness, political polarisation and declining mental health were reshaping how workers related to one another and to their organisations, with potential consequences for team cohesion, workplace conflict and the capacity of OHS frameworks to function effectively.

An ageing, multigenerational workforce: The report projected that by 2040, nearly all G20 countries would be classified as super-ageing societies, with more than 20 per cent of their populations aged 65 or older. Extended working lives would place new demands on OHS training, particularly given that workers entering new roles later in their careers faced elevated injury risk. The authors also noted that early-onset dementia was projected to rise by 59 per cent by 2050, raising questions about what dementia-friendly workplace accommodations would need to look like and how technology could be deployed to support them.

Alongside this, the report flagged the challenge of managing a workforce potentially spanning five distinct social generations simultaneously – from Baby Boomers through to Gen Alpha. Each cohort carried different expectations about technology, communication styles, flexibility and the relationship between work and personal wellbeing. 

Key takeaways for OHS professionals: The report offered practical directions for OHS practitioners. On communication, it recommended exploring new channels and messengers for safety guidance – recognising that traditional institutional sources had lost credibility with significant portions of the workforce. Engaging trusted peer figures and community voices was raised as one possible avenue.

On technology, the authors called for OHS professionals to take an active role in shaping standards for algorithmic accountability and ethical data use, rather than responding to AI adoption after the fact. This included developing clear frameworks for responsibility when AI-augmented workers were involved in incidents.

On climate, the report recommended that OHS leaders work with employers, governments and urban planners now to ensure workplaces were climate-resilient – updating exposure standards, infrastructure requirements and emergency preparedness protocols before conditions deteriorated further.

On workforce composition, the report urged organisations to treat psychosocial risk prevention and mental health promotion as core safety priorities, not supplementary concerns – particularly for remote, hybrid and isolated workers. The authors also called for OHS policies to actively address inequities in who bore the greatest exposure to emerging risks, noting that marginalised groups remained disproportionately vulnerable across nearly every trend identified in the report.